TEPR Projects: EU Transport GHG: Routes to 2050 II

The two ‘Routes to 2050’ projects were undertaken by a consortium led by AEA. Ian Skinner of TEPR was the original project manager of the first project whilst he was at AEA and continued to be the project’s technical lead after he had formed TEPR; TEPR, along with TNO and CE Delft, was a sub-contractor for the second project.

The first project ran from December 2008 to June 2010, whilst the follow-up began in January 2011 and lasted for 15 months. Early on in the second project, the European Commission published a Transport White Paper, which set out a long-term vision for the development of transport in the EU. This took as its starting point the need to reduce GHG emissions from the EU transport sector by 60% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels.

The focus of the second project was to explore the secondary impacts and the key sensitivities associated with reducing GHG emissions in the transport sector to these levels by 2050. As with the first project, the second project was based around the production of a series of papers covering relevant topics:

• GHG emissions from infrastructure construction, vehicle manufacturing and end of life vehicles, which involved AEA, CE Delft and TNO.
• Co-benefits associated with GHG reduction measures in the transport sector, which involved AEA, CE Delft and TNO.
• Interaction between GHG reduction policy for transport and congestion and accessibility policies, which was written by CE Delft.
• Risks and uncertainties associated with the selected policies and measures for reducing transport’s GHG emissions, which involved TNO, TEPR, CE Delft and AEA.
• Knock-on consequences of relevant transport GHG reduction polices, which involved TNO, TEPR, CE Delft and AEA.
• Potential for less transport-intensive paths to societal goals, which involved CE Delft and TEPR.
• Cost effectiveness of policies and options for decarbonising transport, which involved CE Delft and TNO.
• Co-evolution of regulation and economic instruments for the reduction of transport’s GHG emissions, which involved TEPR and TNO.
• Interaction between the policies that can be put in place prior to 2020 and those that are achievable later, which involved AEA, TNO, CE Delft and TEPR.
• Relationship between road vehicle GHG Regulations and the other transport GHG mitigation options needed to meet the 2050 targets, which involved AEA and TEPR.

Additionally, the SULTAN illustrative scenarios tool, which had been developed in the first project, was elaborated further in the second project:

• Further development of the SULTAN tool and scenarios for EU transport sector GHG reduction pathways to 2050, which was written by AEA.
• SULTAN Illustrative Scenarios Tool – User Guide: 2012 update, which was written by AEA.

As with the first ‘Routes to 2050’ project, each of these reports was presented in a draft format to a stakeholder workshop before being finalised. The work was summarised in the project’s Final Report.